I’m speaking of the power game, of course: politics.
There’s a lot going on right now on Capitol Hill. The House has passed a terrible bill that, if enacted, will leave a whole lot of us out in the cold, unable to pay for the care we need to survive, going back to emergency room treatment for everything, making hard choices between food and our meds. The Senate – supposed to be the more reasonable chamber – has presented a version that is even worse. Medicaid would be cut more slowly, but cuts would be deeper. It would be easier for states to get waivers to opt out of the essential health benefits. And the governors would be able to apply for waivers without the consent of their legislatures. It’s scary and stressful.
But there is a difference between government and politics. Government is that set of terrible bills, which have support from no state. Politics is what might save us. I truly believe that the majority of politicians pursue office because they think they can make their constituents’ lives better. In order to do that, they need to stay in office. Therein lies the rub.
Keep in mind that the man behind the bill, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is a master strategist. He shrouded the bill in secrecy and kept its substance even from the panel he appointed to write it until the last minute. By keeping the text under wraps, he stunted discussion in favor of rife rumor, and kept us from a deeper understanding of the bill by disallowing public debate. He wants to adhere to a very short timeframe – eight days from unveiling to vote -- barely enough time to digest the independent analysis produced by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. McConnell can only afford to lose three votes. Two to make it a 50-50 split, and one to put it past intervention by tie breaker Vice President Mike Pence. (No Democrat will cross the aisle to vote for this bill.) If people don’t understand what’s in the bill, they are less likely to lodge complaints with their Senators.
On one side of the Republican opposition, you have the ultra conservatives. Four have publicly opposed the bill on the grounds that the it is not conservative enough: Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Mike Lee of Utah, and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin. Don’t count on these folks to stand on this. Political posturing is important to shore up your base, but these are safe states, and in the end, the bill is a big step toward their ultimate goal of killing government funding for basically everything.
On the other end of the opposition, there are the Senators for whom it would not be politically expedient to vote for this bill. Dean Heller of Nevada has already said he won’t vote for the bill as it is because he knows how many of his constituents would be negatively affected. There are others. Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, Jeff Flake of Arizona, Rob Portman of Ohio, Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Andy Gardner of Colorado, and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. Some of these states would lose too much if Medicaid was cut as deeply as the bill proposes. Some of them are facing such severe conditions in the opioid crisis that their constituents literally won’t survive without the federal funding provided by existing law. Whatever the reason, these are the Senators most open to persuasion by their constituents. That’s not to say that there won’t be certain concessions made for those specific states during negotiations, but we are not there yet, and there is little time for that on McConnell’s timeframe.
- Certain states will pick up the funding slack if the Federal government drops the ball. The ones with the budgets to will keep as many of the exchanges open as possible, especially the states that built their own, as opposed to relying on the Federal marketplace. Budgets may be limited, but a lot can be accomplished through state regulation. Regulations are only limited by the chambers who write them. And state government usually moves much faster than Federal.
- And the big one: all of this might be political posturing. McConnell knows very well how difficult this bill will be to pass. But at least if he puts it up for a vote by Friday, most Republicans can go home and say that, after seven years of talking about little else, they voted to repeal Obamacare. The Senators who opposed will be cast as the villains (“We tried – it’s their fault the bill didn’t pass.”), or more likely heroes to the majority of constituents who are against the bill.
The bottom line is, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. Our community is good at that, as we have all had to sit in doctors’ offices waiting on test results. Now is the time to call. Crash their switchboards (Washington, DC and state offices). Overload staff with civil protests and requests to oppose the bill. And if you don’t live in one of the states listed above, call/text/email a friend who does and ask them to call. This is the power that you have, and exercising it can help relieve that knot that seems to rest permanently in the pit of your stomach.
NOTE: The Senate has already added provisions to their bill to encourage healthy people to sign up for insurance by instituting a penalty for allowing coverage to lapse. The original bill didn’t have that. And the Congressional Budget Office has released its report, which says that 22 million fewer people will be insured (15 million from loss of Medicaid coverage). The deficit will also decrease by $321 billion over 10 years (mainly by not insuring 22 million people).
Senator Contact Pages
Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
Lisa Murkowski (AK)
Susan Collins (ME)
Jeff Flake (AZ)
Rob Portman (OH)
Ben Sasse (NE)
Cory Gardner (CO)
Bill Cassidy (LA)